As we saw in our 2017 UK General Election Impact Report, social media sentiment for Theresa May and the Tories declined steadily in the weeks leading up to the vote foretelling a hung Parliament. Now as May looks to form a coalition between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to reach a majority, social media provides additional insights.
Looking at Facebook affinities, people who engage with the Conservative Party also engage with the DUP at a rate more than 10% higher than the Labour Party. So it’s no surprise that there’s traction between the parties – roughly 1 point of lift for each seat held by the DUP.
Meanwhile, sentiment across Facebook and Twitter for the DUP has dropped precipitously in the 10 days following the election as concerns over the cost of the deal mount.
Looking at how Donald Trump’s triumph in the Rust Belt to win the US Presidential Election was foreshadowed by Twitter and the how the popularity of Leave hashtags outranked Remain in the period before the EU Referendum, it’s clear social media presents an accurate reflection of the mood of the people and can be a better indicator of electoral outcomes than traditional polling.
I suppose it’s only a matter of time before votes are cast via social media and the virtuous cycle – and impact of fake news – really takes hold. Until that time, we can rely on social data to give us insights we need to better understand audiences and predict outcomes – political and marketing alike.
Hope you Conserved some energy to read the rest of this Super DUPer edition of 4C’s Insights.
Read the rest of 4C’s Insights Volume 61 here.
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