This week’s French presidential election was a departure from recent votes that produced heavily nationalistic outcomes such as Trump in the US and Brexit in the UK.

However, one thing that was similar about all three is that the winners carried late momentum on social media. In fact, social engagement proved to be an accurate predictor of the result in each case.

As a reminder, our analysis of Twitter data showed Trump surging in key swing states 2 weeks prior to the election. And our tally of Twitter hashtags for the month before the EU Referendum revealed that Leave was ahead. In both cases, our data were at odds with the pundits and polls but proved to be on point in the end.

Looking at Facebook and Twitter data for the 2 weeks prior to the French election, we can see Macron pulling away. And, of course, it’s no surprise that the day of the run-off his lift in engagement was more than 3x that of Le Pen.

 

Despite the differences between countries and candidates, it’s clear that using social media as a barometer for the sentiment of the people has become a reliable and universal truth.

Here’s hoping for peace and unity throughout all our great nations and here’s hoping you enjoy the rest of 4C’s Insights.

Read the rest of 4C’s Insights Volume 55 here.

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